Impact of 2014 Revolution: Analysis of International Trade between Thailand and Australia

Abstract

From 1 January 2005, Thailand and Australia entered into the Thailand-Australia Free Trade Agreement. This agreement facilitated two-way trade and investment, improved business mobility, increased transparency, encouraged international best practice, and promoted bilateral cooperation. As a result, two-way trade in goods and services increased until 2014 when there was revolution in Thailand. This political event has impacted on the future of international trade between the countries. Analysis of history, referred to as a time series, can be a key tool in relation to making current decisions and plans based on long-term forecasting. This paper aims to compare the results of time series forecasting and actual values from 2014 to 2015, using mixed methods research that includes documentary research and time series analysis on yearly data from 1987 to 2013. The result indicates that the Thai and Australian government policies provide a negative effect on Thailand goods and services imported from Australia and Thailand services exported to Australia while having a positive effect on Thailand goods exported to Australia. This political event has impacted on the future of international trade between both countries. Hence, our conclusion is that this case highlights the influence that politics can have on economics.

Keywords: International Trade; Revolution; Thailand; Australia

Australian Academy of Accounting and Finance Review, vol 3, issue 2, April 2017, pp 58-64