Did Bicton prices show Abnormal Returns Different from Zero on the Election of President Trump in 2016 and 2024?

Abstract

Research work has shown that the sentiments expressed by President Trump in Twitter posts can be a predictive factor in the return of Bitcoin (Huynh, 2021). However, no work exists in the literature that documents the abnormal returns of Bitcoin around the election days of President Trump. The current research shows that the hypothesis of the median abnormal return of Bitcoin being zero cannot be rejected within a short period around the day of the election of President Trump. As the samples of abnormal returns of Bitcoin are not normally distributed, non-parametric hypothesis tests have been used in this work. The results from this work will be of importance to portfolio managers who will be encouraged to use the information presented here to predict the return of Bitcoins on days of political significance.